What You Need to Know: The incoming U.S. administration in January 2025 will confront a deteriorating strategic landscape, highlighted by China's unveiling of the H-20 Xi’an long-range stealth bomber.
-The H-20, with its advanced flying-wing design and ability to carry a 40-ton payload over 8,000 miles, is poised to rival the U.S. B-2 Spirit and B-21 Raider.
-China’s superior defense industrial base suggests it could mass-produce these bombers, posing a significant threat to U.S. bases in Guam and Hawaii. Coupled with its A2/AD systems, China’s growing military parity or superiority in the Indo-Pacific underscores America’s weakening strategic position.
China’s H-20 Bomber: A New Threat to U.S. Dominance
When the new administration takes office on January 20, 2025, it will be presented with the worst strategic picture that any US leader has faced at least since 1980, maybe since 1933. Theworld-class Zhuhai Air Show in Chinahas already broken many Western preconceptions about the backwardness of China (and even of heavily sanctioned Russia).
In that air show a few weeks back, Russia demonstrated thatthe Su-57, contrary to Western corporate media is an impressive fifth-generation warplane. What’s more, China finally unveiled their potent fifth-generationJ-35, China’s equivalent of theF-35 Lightning II.
Now, Chinese social media is abuzz over recently leaked photos of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)H-20 Xi’an long-range strategic stealth bomber. See the image directly below.
Accordingto Peter Suciu in these pages, “New renderings of China’s Xi’an H-20 stealth bomber [hint] at a flying-wing design with deep penetration capabilities and potential to rival the U.S. B-2 Spirit and upcoming B-21 Raider” long-range stealth bombers.
Indeed, the images produced thus far suggest that the H-20 will be used to conduct decisive stealth strikes on the American fortifications on Guam while possibly being able to attack targets beyond Guam as well.
And with China’s defense industrial base supremacy over the United States, the likelihood that they could mass produce these shockingly competitive stealth bombers means that the United States, with its paltry force of 19B-2 Spirit bombers(and one prototype of the B-21) could be numerically outmatched by the Chinese.
Spitting Facts About the H-20
As for the technical readouts of the H-20. It sounds an awful lot like they are on par with the B-2 Spirit and, quite possibly, even theB-21 Raiderwhich is having difficulty achieving the needed production quota (the Air Force wants 300 units but say they’ll settle for 150. This author suspects they’ll be lucky to get 20 over the next 15 years).
The reason this is significant is not only because it should be (yet another) wake-up call for Washington about the growing capabilities and threat that China’s military poses to the United States. More importantly, though, it’s significant because the Chinese now have multiple modalities with which to rebuff US military units operating in the Indo-Pacific.
With theiranti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) networksarrayed throughout theSouth China Seaand the Chinese coastline of theTaiwan Strait, China’s military believes it can reliably keep the bulk of the United States Navy’s surface warfare fleet over-the-horizon indefinitely.
With a long-range stealth bomber capability that many experts say is ready to fly as early as this week (although Chinese sources insist that the plane will not be debuted until 2026), Chinese forces can now more reliably target US Air Force bases throughout the contested region—and with stealth capabilities so the Americans would be unlikely to see them coming.
A Sad Strategic Reality
Plus, the H-20 Xi’an is believed to be capable of carrying a 40-ton payload and has a range of over 8,000 miles. So, both Guam and Hawaii are on the target lists for this bird. Sure, the Americans can always counter with their own B-2 Spirit attacks. But the damage would be done.
Face it, the Americans have allowed the Chinese to gain parity with its forces in the Indo-Pacific. After a decade of ignoring it, the next American president is going to face a China whose military is relatively equal (or better in some key areas) to the overstretched and strained US military in the Indo-Pacific.
The rise of the H-20 Xi’an is yet another tragic example ofthis new strategic reality.
About the Author:
Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national securityanalyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase wherever books are sold. Weichert can be followed via Twitter@WeTheBrandon.
Image Credit: Creative Commons.
